ËÄÉ«AV

Matthew Schmidt, Ph.D., has been closely following the war in Ukraine. An expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin, he says the current war is not new, but the most recent events of an escalating conflict – one that began years ago.

Dr. Schmidt, who has spoken with media outlets around the globe about the war and whose , shared his expertise with the University community. He was part of a recent virtual panel discussion that took place the day after Russia launched a large-scale military invasion that focused on the conflict and violence in Ukraine.

"What you see on your television screens is a war of independence," explained Dr. Schmidt, who is also an expert on strategic analysis in foreign affairs, military matters, and defense and intelligence. "This is a war that's been going on for the Ukrainian people for eight years. You'll see Ukrainians over and over again saying, 'What's new here? We've been surrounded by Russia for eight years.' What became different this time was the full-scale invasion we saw recently."

'The very beginning of a long war of independence'

As part of the virtual panel, Dr. Schmidt discussed the history of the conflict, which began in 2004 with the Orange Revolution. In late 2013 and early 2014, the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine led to the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government due, in large part, to the perception that Yanukovych was trying to establish closer ties with Russia.

Describing Vladimir Putin, Dr. Schmidt said the Russian President opposes democracy and certain values, such as gay rights. He said Putin is not a communist who wants to recreate the past, but that he wants to establish the power and centrality of Moscow in world affairs. Dr. Schmidt explained that it was "patently absurd" to consider NATO a threat.

"It is, in a way, messianic, since Putin thinks of himself as a czar," he said. "He sees himself as someone who is rebuilding Russia's place in world history. If I'm right and he continues to deny the nationality of Ukraine, it will be difficult to deter him through sanctions and threat of military action. This remains the very beginning of a long war of independence for Ukraine."

'We stand with the people of Ukraine'

Titled "Russia's War Against Ukraine: How Far Will Putin Go?" the panel also included Olena Lennon, Ph.D., a political science and national security professor who grew up in Ukraine, as well as Howard Stoffer, Ph.D., and Daria Kirjanov-Mueller, Ph.D. The panel endeavored to keep members of the University community informed while giving them an opportunity to engage with experts and better understand the complex conflict in Ukraine.

University President Steven H. Kaplan, Ph.D., recently condemned Russia's "unprovoked and unjustified" attack against Ukraine. In a message to the University community, he said that no Chargers are currently in Ukraine, and he called Russia's actions an "assault on democracy and an attack on the values we hold dear."

"As educated and engaged individuals, it is critical that we are aware of and understand world affairs and their widespread impact across the globe," he said. "Above all, we stand with the people of Ukraine, and allies from across the globe, as they steadfastly resist invasion, fight for their freedom, and bravely face the dangers of this unthinkable tragedy."

'This has much wider consequences than we can imagine'

Dr. Lennon, who has family living in Ukraine, gave an update on the war as part of the discussion. She cautioned that the war is just getting started, describing it as a "very dangerous moment of the war." While she expects the violence to continue, she believes civilians will continue to fight and do what they can to protect their country.

Discussing Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy, Dr. Lennon told the University community she believes it is implausible for Russia to install a proxy government. She described Ukraine's democracy as operating from the bottom up, suggesting that Russia won't be able to "decapitate" the top of the democracy in hopes that the bottom will follow.

"Ukraine's forces are much more resilient and capable of defending their territory than Russia gave them credit for," she said. "If there's one lesson we have learned over the last few weeks, it's that we shouldn't underestimate Putin."

'It is having reverberations around the world'

Moderated by Bradley Woodworth, Ph.D., an associate professor of history who has lived and studied for extended periods of time in Russia, the panel offered the nearly 200 attendees the opportunity to ask questions. Dr. Woodworth also shared a map of Ukraine and explained where Russia has attacked.

Dr. Stoffer, who served in the Foreign Service of the United States for 25 years, called Putin a "bully" who has signaled his "unfitness" to be in charge of a country such as Russia. Dr. Stoffer described his own shock and outrage at learning of Russia's attack on Ukraine.

"This is not an isolated action," said Dr. Stoffer, who also served as deputy executive director of the . "It is having reverberations around the world – politically, economically, and historically. This has much wider consequences than we can imagine."

'The world continues to be shocked and sad'

Dr. Kirjanov-Mueller, a practitioner in residence at the University who has taught Russian for many years, discussed the resistance to the war. She described a consortium of journalists who have started an anti-war project and shared a video of the anti-war protests in Russia. She told the University community that the majority of Russians don't support the invasion of Ukraine.

Describing an "alarming" message she received from her cousin about the shelling in Ukraine, Dr. Kirjanov-Mueller discussed the terrifying and violent events that have taken place in Ukraine, as well the widespread opposition to what is taking place.

"She was hiding in a basement, and she sent me a picture of a missile that went half way into a street in her region," she said. "Children have died. The world continues to be shocked and sad, that includes Russians. There's been a huge outpouring from Russians around the world in support for Ukraine."

'It's a worthy cause'

Because the war is dynamic and discussing and understanding the conflict is so critical, the panelists plan to hold another virtual discussion to update members of the University community and to continue the conversation.

Though she says the war has already been "massively destructive," Dr. Lennon told members of the University community that she sees a glimmer of hope. She hopes Ukraine's western allies come to its assistance and find ways to make the war as costly on Russia as possible. She believes sanctions will hurt Russia, and she says Ukraine's resistance has already been "robust and intense."

"This means people in the U.S. will have to accept rising prices, and the global economy will be affected," she explained. "We've seen shocks from the initial sanctions in higher energy prices, and stock markets reacted negatively. That's what we should be preparing for, and it's a worthy cause for people around the world to tolerate those costs and absorb shocks to system to help Ukraine defend itself as much as possible."